GTA Condo Market Crisis: What Happened and Why It Matters in 2025

There’s a major correction happening in the Greater Toronto Area’s condo market — and most people aren’t talking about it.

Thousands of pre-construction condos are coming to completion, and buyers are discovering their units are worth far less than they paid. This isn’t just a dip — it’s a full-blown crisis that could ripple into other parts of the real estate market.

Here’s why it’s happening, what to watch for, and what it means for homeowners, first-time buyers, and investors in York Region and across the GTA.

Why Is the Condo Market Melting Down?

1. Inflated Pre-Construction Prices

Now we are talking primarily pre-construction condos here, but this sector has a ripple effect on resale condo prices in the GTA.

From 2019 to 2022, pre-construction condos were selling for 30–40% more than comparable resale units. Many buyers believed values and rents would continue rising forever.

Now, with those units completing, appraisals from lenders are coming in lower than purchase price— leaving buyers unable to secure financing.

2. Small-Time Investors Took Big Risks

Most buyers weren’t end-users. They were investors — many buying multiple units perhaps using HELOCs (home equity lines of credit) from their homes, or other types of credit sources. Some had no real intention of financing the units at all but rather selling on assignment before the units closed.

This sector was propped by speculation.

This worked while prices rose. But now, many can’t close — and some are walking away from their deposits. We are talking $100,000, $200,000 and more!

3. Rents Are Falling

One key assumption behind these investments? That rents would keep rising. But we’re now seeing:

• Lower rent prices in the GTA
• Higher vacancy rates
• Negative cash flow for landlords

4. Mortgage Rates Are Higher

Higher rates are making it harder for buyers to qualify for mortgages — especially when the appraised value is less than what they agreed to pay years ago. Some units were selling for $1400 a square foot pre-con, and now are valued at $1,000 or less.

5. Too Much Supply, Not Enough Demand

There are 30,000+ new condo units hitting the market over the next 22 months. At the same time, assignment sales are drying up, and listings are piling up at record levels. Investors are gone, and therefore, demand is down sharply.

What Happens Next?

• Developers may quietly sell unsold units at a discount or convert them to rentals or public housing.
• Investors can’t close, some with HELOCs and other loans could be overexposed, especially if values drop further.
• The ripple effects may touch the low-rise housing market, especially if sellers need to offload other assets to cover their losses.

What It Means for You in York Region

• Buyers: This could be your chance to buy at a better price — but make sure you’re looking at long-term value. Think end user, not flipping.
• Investors: It’s time to rethink pre-construction flipping strategies. Stick to the fundamentals.
• Homeowners: This isn’t 2008, but it’s a shift worth watching. Detached and semi prices may feel some indirect pressure if investors need to liquidate, or if upsize buyers dry up because they can’t get out of their condo.

Final Thoughts

The GTA condo market is correcting fast. Whether this presents an opportunity or a risk depends on how you move through it.

If you’re thinking of buying this could be a good opportunity for first time buyers to get into the market — but you need to buy and hold a few years.

If you want some insight tailored to your specific situation — let’s chat.

— Kathleen Miller, Realtor®
York Region and Toronto Real Estate | Helping First-Time Buyers & Young Professionals find their place.

If you’re a first-time buyer or move-up buyer eyeing a $1M home, you’ve likely asked yourself: Should I put 20% down and avoid CMHC insurance, or go with less and lock in a better interest rate?

The answer? It depends.

Let’s dive into a real-life breakdown using current 2025 rates in Ontario and explore what your money is really doing behind the scenes.

Disclaimer:
This blog is for illustration and informational purposes only. All figures are estimates based on current interest rates and typical mortgage structures as of 2025. Actual rates, terms, and insurance premiums may vary. Mortgage payments are shown as consistent throughout the amortization period for simplicity, though they may change over time. Please consult your mortgage broker or financial advisor for advice specific to your situation.

 The Scenarios: $1M Home Purchase

 After 5 Years: What Have You Really Paid?

Let’s compare how much goes toward interest, principal, and how much equity you’ve built in each case over 5 years.

*plus any appreciation or depreciation

 Quick takeaway: Even though you pay more interest long-term with 20% down due to a slightly higher rate, you build more equity faster because of your bigger initial down payment.

 Full 25-Year Mortgage Comparison

 Key Pros & Cons

13% Down – Lower Barrier to Entry

Pros:

• Lower rate (insured mortgage)
• Enter the market sooner with less cash upfront
• Monthly payments still manageable

Cons:

• $26,970 insurance premium (added to mortgage)
• Slower equity growth
• More scrutiny from CMHC guidelines

20% Down – More Control, Less Insurance

Pros:

• No CMHC insurance fees
• Bigger equity cushion from day one
• More flexibility with lenders

Cons:

• Requires more cash upfront
• Slightly higher rate (as of March 2025)
• Opportunity cost: could that extra $70K be better used elsewhere?

️ The Bottom Line

There’s no one-size-fits-all answer. If you’re tight on savings but want to stop renting and start building equity, 13% down is a solid move—especially with today’s lower insured rates. If you’ve got the 20% saved and want to avoid CMHC insurance altogether, that’s a smart long-term play.

Want help figuring out which option is best for you?
Let’s run your numbers together and map out a game plan. This is one of the biggest financial decisions you’ll make—let’s make sure it’s an informed one.

Kathleen Miller | Real Estate with Clarity & Care
Serving York Region and beyond – helping buyers move with confidence.

Navigating the York Region Real Estate Market: August 2024 Update

Thinking about buying or selling property in York Region? Staying informed on the latest market shifts is key to making confident decisions. Realtor Kathleen Miller breaks down the August 2024 real estate statistics for York Region, painting a picture of a market finding its balance.

Market Balance: Months of Inventory (MOI) Stays Steady

A key indicator of market health is the Months of Inventory (MOI). For the second consecutive month, York Region sits at 4.7 months of inventory.

• What this means: We remain firmly in a balanced market.
• Context: Less than 4 months typically signals a seller’s market (high demand, low supply), while over 6 months indicates a buyer’s market (more supply than demand). 4-6 months suggests equilibrium between buyers and sellers.

This consistency points towards market stabilization.

Sales Volume and Pacing

• Homes Sold: 895 homes were sold in August 2024, a slight dip compared to 921 homes in August 2023.
• Average Days on Market (DOM): Homes took an average of 28 days to sell, up from 23 days last month and 20 days last year. This suggests a slightly slower pace, potentially requiring sellers to be mindful of pricing strategies.

Pricing Insights: Average vs. Benchmark

While the average sale price provides a snapshot, the Home Price Index (HPI) Benchmark Price offers a more accurate view of typical home value trends.

• Average Sold Price (Aug 2024): $1,297,868 (down from $1,339,742 in Aug 2023).
• Benchmark Price (All Home Types, Aug 2024): $1,372,500 (a 4.58% decrease year-over-year).
• Benchmark Price (Detached Homes, Aug 2024): $1,627,600 (a 3.58% decrease year-over-year).
• List-to-Sale Ratio: At 99% (down from 101% last year), properties are selling very close to their asking price, further reinforcing the balanced market conditions.

The HPI Benchmark helps filter out fluctuations caused by a changing mix of homes sold (e.g., more luxury sales one month skewing the average high). The modest year-over-year decrease in the benchmark indicates market cooling but avoids the potential distortion seen in simple average price comparisons.

Mortgage Rate Relief on the Horizon?

Following recent Bank of Canada rate drops and a softening bond market, mortgage rates are becoming more favourable.

• Current 5-Year Fixed Rates: Ranging approximately from 4.14% to 4.79% (as of early Sept 2024, via Wowa.ca).
• Outlook: Economists anticipate further rate decreases through next year.

Buyers and those renewing mortgages should shop around, as better rates are becoming available.

What This Means For You

The York Region real estate market in August 2024 continues to show signs of stabilization, operating within a balanced territory. While benchmark prices have seen a modest dip compared to last year, emerging favourable mortgage trends could boost buyer confidence.

Key Takeaways for August 2024:

• Market Type: Balanced (4.7 MOI)
• Sales Pace: Slightly slower (28 DOM vs 20 last year)
• Pricing: Benchmark prices show a slight year-over-year decrease; homes selling close to asking (99% list/sale ratio).
• Mortgages: Rates are softening, with potential for further drops.

Remember, real estate is hyper-local. While these regional stats provide valuable context, trends can vary significantly by neighbourhood. Your personal situation and goals are unique.

The Canadian real estate market remains in a prolonged period of adjustment as buyers stay on the sidelines, waiting for more significant interest rate cuts to boost purchasing power and consumer confidence. Despite a modest 1.9% year-over-year increase in the national aggregate home price in Q2 2024, major markets like Toronto and Vancouver saw slower activity, with inventory building but demand lagging. Meanwhile, regions like Quebec City experienced a surge, with a 10.4% increase in aggregate home prices—the highest in the country.

Phil Soper, CEO of Royal LePage, highlighted the unusual market dynamics where prices are rising despite lower transaction volumes, particularly in Toronto and Vancouver. While a 25-basis-point cut by the Bank of Canada in June 2024 was expected to spur market activity, the response was tepid, with buyers awaiting more substantial reductions before re-entering the market.

According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey, the impact of higher borrowing costs on new home construction, leading to a slowdown in housing starts and exacerbating the supply shortage. This shortage continues to put upward pressure on prices, especially in markets with high demand and limited inventory.

Looking ahead, Royal LePage maintains its forecast of a 9.0% increase in national home prices by the end of 2024, with the Greater Toronto Area expected to see the highest appreciation at 10.0%. As interest rates gradually decrease, the market may see a resurgence in buyer activity, particularly if further rate cuts are implemented.

July 2024 Real Estate Market Report: York Region, Stouffville, Newmarket, and Aurora

Welcome to our latest real estate market update for July 2024, focusing on York Region, Stouffville, Newmarket, and Aurora. In this post, we’ll break down the key statistics and trends you need to know, and what they mean for buyers and sellers in these areas. Stay tuned until the end for actionable insights and a summary of what you can expect moving forward!

York Region Real Estate Overview

In July 2024, the real estate market in York Region experienced a slight uptick in home sales. A total of 936 homes were sold, compared to 919 in July 2023. This modest increase indicates a stable market with consistent demand.

Months of Inventory
As of July 2024, York Region had 4.7 months of inventory. This figure suggests a balanced market, where neither buyers nor sellers hold a significant advantage. For context:

• Less than 3.5 to 4 months of inventory: Seller’s Market
• 4 to 6 months of inventory: Balanced Market
• Over 6 months of inventory: Buyer’s Market

The current supply of 4.7 months is up from June 2024’s 3.9 months and the 3-month supply in July 2023.

Regional Breakdown: Aurora, Newmarket, and Stouffville

Aurora
Aurora’s months of inventory stood at 3.4, indicating a slightly tighter market compared to the overall York Region. This trend shows a gradual shift toward a more seller-favorable environment.

Newmarket
Newmarket had 3.6 months of inventory in July 2024, similar to Aurora’s trend. This suggests a stable market with balanced conditions, though slightly more favorable to sellers than the broader York Region.

Stouffville
Stouffville maintained a balanced market with 4.4 months of inventory. This is consistent with the general trend in York Region, offering a balanced playing field for both buyers and sellers.

Home Prices

The average price of a home in York Region for July 2024 was $1,305,476,

Here’s a closer look at price changes in specific areas:

• Aurora: $1,420,307
• Newmarket: $1,131521
• Stouffville: $1,309,690

Market Dynamics

List-to-Sale Price Ratio
In York Region, the average list-to-sale price ratio was 100% in July 2024, meaning most properties sold for their asking price. This represents a slight decrease from 102% last year, suggesting that competitive bidding wars are less common.

Days on Market
Properties took an average of 23 days to sell in July 2024, up from 22 days in June and 16 days in July 2023. Sellers should anticipate a longer time on the market compared to last year.

Mortgage Rates and Future Outlook

Current mortgage rates range between 4.34% and 6.7%, depending on the type of mortgage and lender. Economists predict potential rate cuts by the Bank of Canada this fall, which could ease borrowing conditions and further stabilize the market.

What This Means for You

For buyers, the market is currently balanced, with potential improvements in mortgage rates on the horizon. If you’re looking to buy, it might be beneficial to stay informed about upcoming rate changes and prepare for a potentially more favorable environment.

For sellers, while the market remains balanced, expect longer selling times than last year. It’s crucial to price your property strategically to attract buyers in a slightly cooling market.

Get Expert Advice

Every neighborhood in York Region, including Aurora, Newmarket, and Stouffville, has unique market dynamics. For tailored advice and to discover hidden opportunities, consider a personalized market evaluation.

Ready to Dive Deeper?
Click the link below to request a free, no-obligation consultation. I’m here to provide accurate market analysis and help you make informed decisions.

Schedule Your Free Consultation

Exploring York Region’s Tranquil Trail System: A Real Estate Gem

Welcome to the York Region, a place where the beauty of nature blends seamlessly with vibrant community living. One of the region’s hidden treasures is its extensive trail system, nestled within the York Regional Forests. These trails are more than just pathways; they are gateways to tranquility and adventure, open to everyone—cyclists, runners, walkers, hikers, and dog lovers alike.

Imagine stepping out of your home and finding yourself amidst a network of trails that offer an escape into nature’s serenity. Each trail in the York Regional Forests is a unique journey through scenic landscapes, where the rustling leaves and chirping birds create a symphony of natural bliss. These trails are meticulously maintained, ensuring a safe and enjoyable experience for all.

The diversity of the trail system caters to all levels of outdoor enthusiasts. Whether you’re seeking a leisurely stroll, an invigorating run, or an adventurous bike ride, there’s a path that perfectly matches your pace. For families, these trails are a playground of exploration and discovery, where children can learn about nature and wildlife. Dog walkers will find these paths a delightful treat for their furry companions, offering plenty of space and fresh air.

But the splendor of York Region’s outdoor experience doesn’t stop there. The Rouge National Urban Park, another gem in our region, boasts an incredible trail system that showcases the area’s natural beauty. From lush woodlands to meandering rivers, the park is a haven for those seeking a peaceful retreat from the hustle and bustle of city life.

Living in the York Region means having the luxury of these natural escapes right at your doorstep. As a realtor, I often see how these trails significantly enhance the quality of life for residents, adding a unique charm to our community. Whether you’re an avid hiker or someone who cherishes peaceful walks, our trail system is a testament to the harmonious balance between urban living and nature’s tranquility.

York Region’s trails are not just pathways; they are a lifestyle, an invitation to embrace the outdoors and find peace amidst nature. As you explore homes in this area, remember that you’re not just buying a property; you’re gaining access to a life enriched by these magnificent trails.

Embrace the opportunity to be part of a community that values nature and well-being. Discover the York Region and its trail system—a true real estate highlight for nature lovers and outdoor enthusiasts.

Reach out to me for more information, or maps to our wonderful trail system.

[email protected] or 647-500-3528

WONDERING HOW MUCH YOU CAN AFFORD?

Wondering if you're financially ready to buy a house? A home is likely the largest purchase you will ever make, so it's important that you feel confident about how much you can afford before you start looking at homes.

The first step in the home buying journey is to get pre-approved, but in case you're not quite ready to speak with a lender just yet, I've outlined a few guidelines that can act as a starting point for answering the question: “Can I afford to buy a house right now?”:

Let's review the 28/36 “rule”

HOUSING EXPENSE RATIO (28) —

This rule suggests that your total monthly housing expenses (mortgage, property taxes, homeowner's insurance, HOA fee, etc.) should not exceed 28% of your gross monthly income.

DEBT-TO-INCOME RATIO (36) —

This rule suggests that your TOTAL debt payments, including your housing expenses (credit cards, car loans, student loans, etc. + your total mortgage payment), should not exceed 36% of your gross monthly income.

QUICK TIP: It's important to remember that lenders will qualify you based on your GROSS, pre-taxable income, which is typically not your take-home pay, so you should put together a budget to ensure that you are going to be comfortable with your new mortgage payment — you don't want to end up “house poor.” Developing a comprehensive budget that includes all your expenses, savings goals, and income sources will provide a more accurate picture of what you can comfortably afford.

But how does that equate to price?

That depends on a few factors, including:

• YOUR DOWNPAYMENT
  • The more money you put down, the lower the payment. Put 20% down, and you get rid of monthly mortgage insurance. Don't forget to factor in closing costs when budgeting for a downpayment — closing costs can range anywhere between 2-4% of the purchase price.
• INTEREST RATES (and your credit)
  • Your credit and downpayment will determine your interest rate (among other factors)
• TAXES
  • When using those fancy online mortgage calculators, don't forget to add the property taxes to your payment! Take the annual taxes and divide by 12 to get what you would pay monthly.
• CONDO / HOA FEES
• 
  
  • If a home is in a Condo or Homeowner's association, you can pay anywhere from $100-500+ a month. This will ultimately decrease your buying power & how much you can afford.
  • For example, at a 6.5% interest rate, a $200/monthly HOA fee will decrease your buying power by about $40,000

Still feeling a bit unsure? I'm here to help! Send me a message, and let's discuss your homeownership goals!

[email protected]

or 647-500-3528

Introduction

The condominium apartment market in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) has been making waves during the second quarter of 2023. With a significant increase in condo sales and a sharp decline in new listings, market conditions have tightened, creating a competitive environment for buyers. In this blog post, we’ll delve into the key highlights of the latest Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) report and explore the factors driving this surge in demand while examining the potential impact on condo prices in the months ahead.

The Condo Sales Surge

The numbers don’t lie – condo sales in the GTA have skyrocketed, showing a remarkable increase of over 20% compared to the same quarter last year. This surge is fueled by factors such as robust population growth and an intensely competitive rental market, enticing more prospective buyers to explore homeownership.

Declining New Listings and Rising Competition

While condo sales are on the rise, new condo listings have taken a sharp nosedive, declining by more than 13% during Q2 2023. This discrepancy between sales and new listings has resulted in a tighter market with fewer available properties, heightening competition among buyers. As demand outpaces supply, this trend is expected to drive prices upward.

Affordability and Price Trends

Despite the increased demand, the average selling price for a condominium apartment in the GTA dipped by 4.2% in Q2 2023 compared to the previous year. The GTA-wide average condo selling price was $737,868, and within the City of Toronto, it was $769,616, both down from their 2022 levels. This decline in average prices has made condos more affordable for buyers, contributing to the surge in sales.

Rent Increases and Ownership Market Shift

Surging rents, well above inflation rates over the past two years, have played a crucial role in the condo market’s dynamics. With average rents increasing by double-digit percentages annually, more households are finding it financially viable to transition from renting to homeownership. This trend is a key driver behind the increasing demand for condominium apartments.

Looking Ahead

While the current market conditions favor buyers with increased affordability, it’s important to note that this trend might not last long. With the sales-to-listings ratio leaning towards sellers, the GTA condo market is poised to witness price increases in the coming months. As competition remains fierce, potential buyers should act with a sense of urgency to secure their dream condos before prices surge.

Conclusion

The GTA condominium apartment market is currently experiencing a significant surge in sales, driven by factors such as population growth, competitive rental market, and affordability. With declining new listings and rising competition, the market is tightening, which might lead to increasing condo prices in the future. Aspiring homeowners looking to capitalize on favorable market conditions should consider their options and make informed decisions to secure their ideal condo in the vibrant and dynamic Greater Toronto Area.

If you’re looking for a great way to spend quality time with your family, Stouffville has plenty of events that will keep everyone entertained. From outdoor activities to community festivals, there’s something for everyone in Stouffville.

1. Stouffville Strawberry Festival

The Stouffville Strawberry Festival is an annual event that takes place in June. The festival features live music, food trucks, and a midway, and of course, plenty of delicious strawberry treats. There’s also a parade that kicks off the festival, making it a great event for the whole family.

2. Whitchurch-Stouffville Country Fair

The Whitchurch-Stouffville Country Fair is a community event that takes place in September. The fair features live music, carnival games, and a petting zoo, making it a great event for families with young children. There’s also a variety of local vendors selling handmade crafts and baked goods.

3. Stouffville Country Ribfest

The Stouffville Country Ribfest is a three-day event that takes place in August. The festival features live music, a beer garden, and of course, plenty of mouth-watering ribs. There’s also a midway and a variety of food vendors selling everything from funnel cakes to corn on the cob.

4. Stouffville Farmers’ Market

The Stouffville Farmers’ Market is a weekly event that takes place from May to October. The market features local vendors selling fresh produce, baked goods, and handmade crafts. There’s also live music and a variety of food trucks, making it a great place to spend a Saturday morning with your family.

Conclusion

Stouffville has plenty of family-friendly events that are sure to keep everyone entertained. Whether you’re looking for a fun day out or a weekend-long festival, Stouffville has something for everyone. So why not plan a family outing to one of these great events and make some memories that will last a lifetime?

Stouffville Properties